Property sales dip but agents hope rate cut will boost the market

Fewer sales than usual were registered by HMRC for June, official figures show.

The latest property transactions statistics from the taxman - based on Stamp Duty returns - from the taxman show 91,370 registered sales in June on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The figure is up 8% annually but down 1% on a monthly basis - the first such drop for five months.

In contrast, the average number of residential sales registered in June has been 104,957 over the past decade.

The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in June 2024 was 90,420, 5% lower than June 2023 and 2% lower than May 2024

The figures coincide with the build-up to the General Election, when many agents reported a slower market although much of the data may reflect deals agreed around March and April - when mortgage rates were higher.

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "June was a bit of a washout for the property market, reflecting the fact that sales were agreed when mortgage rates were gradually climbing earlier this year. 

“For most of the period since, they’ve edged higher, and the Bank of England shows mortgage approvals have suffered. It means sales could look decidedly lacklustre in the coming months.”

There are hopes that things are turning around though since the General Election result.

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said the property market has entered a phase of steady recovery with transaction volumes showing a level of stability in the first half of the year.

He said: “The hope is that the landslide election victory will boost consumer confidence, adding certainty to the market to encourage buyers and sellers to press on with their home moves undeterred by political headwinds.”

Leeming said any significant boost to the property market will not happen overnight, with borrowers waiting to see what happens with interest rates.

He added: “Across the Jackson-Stops network in June we have seen a steady uptick in new instructions compared to a year ago and exchanges have also remained in line with June 2023, with particularly strong levels of new listings year on year in the North West, the South East and Sussex. This suggest that popular areas that have consistently been on the top of buyers lists are sustaining this trend, with pressure on housing supply in small pockets of the UK insulating prices and activity levels for the foreseeable future.”

Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, added: “It's important to consider these figures in the broader context of the market's recovery. The overall trend for 2024 remains positive, and higher transaction levels compared to last year suggest that buyer confidence is gradually returning to the market.

“With some experts predicting to see interest rates fall this week, we could see a consumer confidence soar towards the tail end of 2024.

“This should be the shot in the arm that lenders need to ramp up better fixed-rate mortgage offers, as well as rolling out more which are 95% and 100% loan-to-value to benefit those struggling to save for a deposit.

“The new Government’s commitment to house-building will take some time to have a material effect, but it could provide a welcome boost for the industry and prospective buyers.”