Corporate agencies and analysts predict market for 2016 and beyond

The scores are in: Estate Agent Today has collated forecasts from 10 of the leading estate agency corporates and major business consultancies, with their views of what the UK housing market will do next year and beyond.

The results make fascinating reading and, to give an idea of how accurate those same forecasters have been this year, we have also put down what they predicted 12 months ago for 2015 and how they think the market will have done by year-end.

Countrywide

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 4.0%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 4.5% 

Lookout in 2016 for: If moving or investing in property, do the sums properly to provide a cushion for risks including rate rises, taxes and lending restrictions.

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Savills

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 6.5%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate rises squeezing affordability, and more mortgage regulations constraining the numbers of people moving.

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JLL

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 4.0%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0%

Lookout in 2016 for: The government must make its mark by empowering the housing industry to deliver more new homes.

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Strutt & Parker

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 5.0% again

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate changes will slow curb the wider market, but additional homes stamp duty may have greater effect on the few who encounter them.

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Knight Frank

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 3.5%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 4.2%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 4.1% 

Lookout in 2016 for: More buyers and possibly higher prices in regional city centre, plus more volatility in buy-to-let activity as stamp duty rules kick in. 

Carter Jonas

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0% to 7.0%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0% to 6.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 3.4% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Areas with strong jobs prospects and close to good transport links will perform best, especially for investor-buyers.

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Capital Economics

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 2.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: A shortage of housing could push prices up further but they are already high and upcoming interest rates should moderate further growth.

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Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 5.0%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 5.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 4.5% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Lack of homes on the market and too few new homes being built will keep prices rising next year and beyond. 

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BNP Paribas

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 6.1%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 6.0%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 4.4% to 6.7% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Too few homes remains the central problem but interest rate rises or new mortgage constraints - or both - will dampen demand.

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Halifax

- Last year’s prediction for 2015: average values up 3.0% to 5.0%

- Most recent prediction for 2015: up 9.7%

- Current prediction for 2016: up 4.0% 

Lookout in 2016 for: Interest rate rises will be gradual but they will put the brakes on price rises, despite weaker-than-expected supply of new homes.