£1m-plus homes to triple by 2030 - in London it'll be one-in-four

The number of UK properties worth at least £1m is expected to more than triple between now and 2030.

A report from Santander Mortgages says that today fewer than 500,000 homes in the UK are valued at £1m or more but this is set to rise to over 1.6m in the next 15 years. 

It says that by 2030, 25 per cent of housing stock in London is expected to be valued at £1m or more, rising to 70 per cent in two London boroughs.

While seven per cent of homes in the south east are expected to fetch £1m-plus by 2030, the proportion will be less than one per cent in the North East, Yorkshire and Humber, North West, Scotland and the East Midlands, reinforcing the traditional geographical divide.  

Overall the average UK property price, which currently stands at £283,565 is expected to increase 23 per cent by 2020 to £349,300. Fifteen years from now in 2030, the average UK property price will have almost doubled (97 per cent increase) surpassing the half a million pound mark at £557,444. 

Incomes will not keep pace, however, resulting in an overall decline in affordability. 

Santander says that at present in the UK the average property price is 7.9 times the average income, but by 2030 this is expected to hit a multiple of 9.7.

Again, this trend is elevated in London, where prices are currently 11.5 times incomes and predicted to rise to 16.5 by 2030. 

“By 2030 the divide between housing haves at the top and the have-nots at the bottom will be even wider than now. More owners will enjoy millionaire status, as homes that many would consider modest fetch seven figure prices in the most sought-after areas. Property price inflation is beneficial for existing owners who will see their net-wealth increase, but it will make entering the market more difficult still for new buyers” explains Professor Paul Cheshire, LSE Professor of Economic Geography and one of the contributors to the report.