Buyers in around 30 per cent of English cities are almost certainly already too late to complete a purchase by March 31 and the end of the stamp duty holiday.
A property consultancy, The Advisory, says with only 21 weeks to go before the end of the holiday - including the lockdown starting tomorrow and then the typically-extended Christmas break - only 70 per cent of English cities have a strong chance of completing a sale before the deadline.
“Because it takes roughly 21 weeks for house sales in hot markets to find a buyer, accept an offer and complete the legal process, only house sellers that are already on the market - or lucky enough to be in an area where houses are likely to sell fast - will be able to secure a buyer and get their deal over the line before the deadline” warns The Advisory’s founder Gavin Brazg.
“Everyone else will no doubt face last minute chain collapses as buyers pull out of the deal or try to renegotiate their purchase price downwards” he adds.
There has already been widespread concern over whether the current backlogs for surveyors, conveyancers and local council search departments can be cleared to allow deals to be completed in time for buyers to benefit from the stamp duty holiday.
Last week a letter signed by 15 industry heavyweights ranging from leaders of agents to removal firms was sent to Chancellor Rishi Sunak seeking an extension to the holiday, either through a tapered end or by a simple longer period.
Sunak was told that the current surge in demand by purchasers was putting the market infrastructure under huge pressure.
The Advisory’s data is the latest weapon in the argument for an extension. Using its PropCast PropTech tool - which assesses the market in different locations - The Advisory has drawn up a table which you can see below, or in more detail here on The Advisory site.
The Advisory says the greater the sales success rate in a city, the greater the buyer demand and the faster property should sell - suggesting buyers could still make the stamp duty deadline.
In the table, GREEN indicates where over 50 per cent of properties on the market currently under offer, suggesting high levels of buyer demand and properties selling at an above average speed.
ORANGE indicates where 35 to 49 per cent of properties on the market are currently under offer, suggesting moderate levels of buyer demand and properties selling at an average pace.
And RED indicates where fewer than 35 per cent of properties on the market are currently under offer, suggesting low levels of buyer demand and properties selling at a below average pace.
Fast House Sale Predictions (Nov 2020)
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Can you beat the SDLT deadline & secure a premium price?
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Can you beat it?
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Bath
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England
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yes
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Birmingham
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England
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yes
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Bradford
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England
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yes
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Brighton and Hove
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England
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yes
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Bristol
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England
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yes
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Cambridge
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England
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yes
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Canterbury
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England
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unlikely
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Chelmsford
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England
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yes
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Chester
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England
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yes
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Chichester
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England
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unlikely
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Coventry
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England
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yes
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Derby
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England
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yes
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Durham
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England
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unlikely
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Ely
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England
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yes
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Exeter
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England
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yes
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Gloucester
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England
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yes
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Hereford
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England
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yes
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Kingston upon Hull
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England
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yes
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Lancaster
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England
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unlikely
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Leeds
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England
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yes
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Leicester
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England
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yes
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Lichfield
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England
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yes
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Lincoln
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England
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unlikely
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Liverpool
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England
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yes
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London
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England
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unlikely
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Manchester
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England
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yes
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Newcastle upon Tyne
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England
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unlikely
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Norwich
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England
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yes
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Nottingham
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England
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yes
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Oxford
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England
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unlikely
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Peterborough
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England
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unlikely
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Plymouth
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England
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yes
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Portsmouth
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England
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yes
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Preston
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England
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unlikely
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Ripon
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England
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yes
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Salford
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England
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unlikely
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Salisbury
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England
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yes
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Sheffield
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England
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yes
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Southampton
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England
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yes
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St Albans
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England
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yes
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Stoke-on-Trent
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England
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yes
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Sunderland
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England
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unlikely
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Truro
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England
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yes
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Wakefield
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England
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yes
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Wells
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England
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unlikely
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Westminster
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England
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no
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Winchester
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England
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unlikely
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Wolverhampton
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England
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yes
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Worcester
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England
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yes
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York
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England
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yes
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I believe that you should take that table with a pinch of salt as it actually looks better than it should in some areas and worse than it should in others.
Some areas, considered to be Birmingham are severely challenged with getting data for planning and building regs which are causing significant delays. Anyone buying within the M6 Toll regions whose building regs data sits at Lichfield will have a massive issue hitting the deadline.
I would also add that if you price a property 'to sell' in Peterborough, it will sell, and search results are returning within 6-8 working days, so I wouldn't write it off there at all. But I suggest the Caveat is the term "& secure a Premium Price".
If vendors and buyers are motivated to complete and do all they can to speed things up many areas still stand a chance.
Everything comes down to price. The table says a big red no for Westminster, but everything has a price. Searches in that Borough are taking 5 - 8 working days and IF someone wanted to sell and priced it in an attractive manner (may not get the premium price), of course it would sell and stand a chance of completing in time. Don't tell me I couldn't Sell a 3 bedroom flat in Victoria Street SW1H for £1m and not complete before the deadline.
Timescales are price sensitive and property CAN create their own demand if motivated to do so.
Trouble is, all too many are not doing all they can. Too many vendors on the market without having completed their protocol forms, instructed a conveyancer to check title or ordered searches for their prospective buyers to speed things up.
Join our mailing list for Search return timescales on our website or via our Trade Directory Page under 'Property Searches' here on E.A.T. and see how we can help you and your transactions. We don't just deliver Searches to support transactions.
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