Brexit could be good for house prices predicts top market commentator

Anthony Codling, the City analyst who made his name as a scourge of Purplebricks, says Brexit may be good news for the housing market and house prices.

In a blog on the website of his PropTech service Twindig, Codling says an analysis of house prices since 2015 - the year before the EU Referendum - shows it is difficult to find any negative caused by the pro-Brexit vote.

He says he anticipates another five per cent rise in typical house prices in 2021. And while Coronavirus remains a wild card, the prospect of a vaccine in the next three to six months means the landscape appears more optimistic than for some time.

“The end of the Stamp Duty Holiday may cause some short term turbulence, but we believe its impact is more likely to lead to a fall in housing transactions than a fall in house prices” he tells his readers.

Codling - who as an analyst at Jefferies wrote what many regard as the definitive critical analysis of Purplebricks’ business model - says the Brexit deal has given the market certainty at the start of 2021.

“Unemployment may rise as the UK adapts to new trading arrangements, but we believe that unemployment is a lagging indicator for the UK housing market. It is fear of unemployment rather than unemployment which has a negative impact on the housing market. The Brexit deal is more likely to reduce the overall fear of unemployment rather than increase it, in our view” he claims.

It’s an interesting analysis which breaks down the Referendum result by UK country and region, and links house price activity with voting patterns; you can see Codling’s full blog here.