The stricter the lockdown ‘the faster housing market recovers’

An analysis of seven countries which underwent different forms of lockdown during the pandemic suggests the British and Italian housing markets fared worst of all in terms of ‘lost’ listings.

However, those markets are also seeing some of the fastest recoveries.

The analysis - by international PropTech expert Mike DelPrete - shows that markets with stringent lockdowns such as the UK’s saw new listings plummet by up to 90 per cent, while some other markets saw relatively little or no change at all.

Of the nations analysed, Italy and the UK had the most stringent lockdowns; the drop in new listings was greatest in these markets, running at between 75 and 90 per cent.

The Australian, US and Canadian markets were less restrictive, and the drop in new listings reflects that at 40 to 50 per cent down. 

In the US that number varies greatly by state, with markets including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New York mirroring the severe drop of up to 90 percent seen in the U.K. and Italy.

The Netherlands, which exercised a less restrictive lockdown, and Sweden - where there were fewer restrictions than almost anywhere else in Europe - produced only low level losses of listings.

“The Netherlands in particular hasn’t seen a significant drop in new listings; rather, it’s enjoying annual highs. Interestingly, new listing volumes in Sweden have seen a limited, delayed decline - about a month after most other markets - of 20 per cent” explains DelPrete in his latest market snapshot sent to subscribers.

However, the analyst says that the longer and more severe the lockdown, the faster the recovery in the housing market appears to be. 

Italy and the UK have seen significant rises in listings in a short time since the end of lockdown.

DelPrete adds: “The evidence suggests that once restrictions are lifted in the hardest hit markets, new listings rebound quickly. However, new listings are only one component of a full market recovery. Buyer demand, leading to completed real estate transactions, will come over time -- and it’s unclear how long that recovery will take.”

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