Prime house prices to fall across Britain despite mainstream market surge

In the week the Nationwide recorded the UK’s highest ever average house price, high-end agency Savills has forecast that prime markets across Britain will see falls in 2020.

By year-end the agency says prime central London will have dropped 2.0 per cent and outer and suburban London by 0.5 and 1.0 per cent respectively. 

What the agency calls “inner commute” and “outer commute” areas around the capital will each see price falls of 2.0 per cent while the wider south of England will drop 1.5 per cent. The Midlands and the north of England, and Scotland, will all fall 2.5 per cent.

In a market report dedicated almost entirely to high-end locations and homes starting at £1m or above, the agency’s research guru Lucian Cook says: “In the markets of prime central London … headwinds meant values were a full 20 per cent below their 2014 level even before the pandemic … Here, the timing of a recovery appears to be just as dependent on the speed at which international travel restrictions and social distancing restrictions are eased as the pace of recovery in global stock markets or the price of oil. 

“While the global economy will dictate longer-term wealth retention and generation, re-ignition of this market will be dependent on when the streets of central London regain their buzz. Prior to the pandemic, prime central London property was not the only market that was looking good value and, arguably, overdue a recovery."

He continues: “The £2m-plus country house market, which now appears to be waking from its slumber, had been something of a sleeping giant for some time, as buyer attention had turned to prime urban living over the past decade or more.”

Savills also looks five years ahead for its forecast and claims that compound price growth in prime markets across Britain will be between 10.3 per cent and 18.5 per cent in different areas by the end of 2024.