Prices to soar more than expected - despite stamp duty return

Scotland was the first UK nation to scrap the equivalent of its stamp duty holiday, yet already the official economic monitor for that country is predicting long-term house price rises far beyond original forecasts.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission now says the average cost of buying a house in Scotland is predicted to reach £246,000 by 2027.

As recently as January the commission said the average cost of a house would be £214,000 in 2025-26.

The most recent Halifax house price index showed that Scotland had the highest annual house price rise in the UK at 9.0 per cent - the UK average was 7.6 per cent.

Analysts suggested that there was still so much momentum in the housing market north of the border, that it would overcome the end of that country’s stamp duty holiday - its Land and Buildings Transaction Tax reverted to pre-pandemic levels back in April.

Simon Brown, head of residential agency for Scottish agency Galbraith, says: “The market is characterised by very strong demand in most part of the country, with intense competition between buyers for the most attractive properties and many homes being sold at a closing date.

“In recent weeks the supply of property coming to the market has been restricted, partly due to the traditional dip in transactions over the summer holiday period. We expect stock to increase again in the autumn.

“Although the figure for annual house price growth is notable, Scotland has not experienced dramatic price growth compared with the rest of the UK over the past decade and tends to enjoy greater market stability. This rise follows several years of relatively modest price increases.”