Nationwide: A relatively soft landing is possible for the housing market

The housing market is struggling to regain momentum following the mini-Budget but a ‘soft landing’ is possible, Nationwide suggests.

The lender is predicting house prices will drop by around 5% next year, which isn’t as steep as other analyst projections that range from 10% to 30%.

Its 2022 House Price Review described the housing market as “remarkably resilient” for the first three quarters of 2022 and annual house price growth ranged from 10% to 14% until August.

Robert Gardner, chief economist for Nationwide, said: “This performance was all the more surprising since housing affordability was already stretched in a number of important respects. 
“In particular, deposit requirements had become increasingly onerous as a result of house prices outstripping earnings by a wide margin in recent years. A 10% deposit on the typical mortgage on a first-time buyer property increased to almost 60% of annual gross earnings – an all-time high.”

He said the financial market turbulence which followed the mini-Budget at the end of September represented a major shock to the housing market, adding: “The number of mortgage applications slumped towards the lows seen at the start of the pandemic as a spike in long-term interest rates quickly fed through to mortgage rates and fundamentally changed the affordability dynamic for prospective buyers.

“Financial market conditions have now settled with long term interest rates returning to the levels prevailing before the mini-Budget. However, mortgage rates are taking longer to normalise and activity levels in the housing market have shown few signs of recovery and house prices saw three successive monthly declines since September – the worst run since 2008.”

Gardner suggested the recent weakness may, in part, reflect an early start to the usual seasonal slowdown, with potential buyers opting to wait until the New Year to see how mortgage rates evolve before looking to transact.

He said: “It will be hard for the market to regain much momentum with economic headwinds set to strengthen, as real earnings fall further, the Bank of England moves interest rates higher and with the labour market widely projected to weaken as the economy shrinks.

“The risks are skewed to the downside, but there is still a good chance that we can achieve a relatively soft landing next year with activity stabilising modestly below pre-pandemic levels and house prices edging lower, perhaps by around 5%.” 

While the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates a little further, Gardner said many borrowers who have moved to five-year fixed rates will be protected as longer-term rates are believed to have peaked.

He said: “This will help provide some support to affordability as will solid gains in nominal earnings growth and modestly lower house prices.

“While the labour market is expected to soften, most expect the deterioration to be modest. Many forecasters, including us, expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 5% in the years ahead – this would represent a significant rise from the current rate of 3.7%, but would still be low by historic standards. 

“Moreover, household balance sheets remain in good shape with significant protection from higher borrowing costs, at least for a period, with around 85% of mortgage balances on fixed interest rates.”