House prices to drop 3.6% in first quarter of 2024 – research

Average house prices will fall 3.6% in the first quarter of the year, according to forecasts by reallymoving.com.

The research is based on analysis of approximately 115,000 conveyancing quote forms, submitted through the comparison website.

These suggest that property price will fall from £323,594 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to £311,936 in the first three months of this year.

Annual house price growth is also down 3.6%, meaning house prices are currently £11,500 lower than a year ago, the research suggests.

However, there are signs that sentiment is now beginning to improve as mortgage rates ease, boosting affordability. 

New registrations for home move services on reallymoving, including conveyancing, surveying and removals, were 73% higher in the first week of January 2024 than the same period last year. 

Rob Houghton, founder and CEO of reallymoving, said: “Based on sales agreed at the end of last year we can expect to see more downward movement in house prices at the start of 2024, but probably not for long. 

“There’s a good deal of pent-up demand from movers who held off last year and we’re already seeing much higher demand for conveyancing quote services. It’s been painful, but many buyers have now adjusted to higher borrowing costs and if mortgage rates continue to fall steadily, as the traditional spring buying window opens up I expect we’ll see significantly more buyers making the decision to enter the market.

“First-time buyer volumes are up notably in January, now accounting for 61% of all home movers. Many more will be weighing up their options, trying to time their move perfectly to benefit from falling mortgage rates and lower house prices. The market can start to heat up again quite quickly, so I’d advise buyers hoping to move this Spring to plan ahead now by speaking with a mortgage broker and applying for an agreement in principle, whilst keeping a watchful eye on the market for further rate falls.”