JONATHAN ROLANDE: The property predictions you don’...

When I first started working as an estate agent there was one thing I never saw coming… and that was having to regularly try to impersonate Mystic Meg.

Three decades on and my crystal ball now sits proudly in the centre of my desk.

Over recent weeks I’ve been regularly asked what I think will happen in the last quarter of 2024.

The questions follow a similar theme: “Is it a good time to buy? Will I make money if I buy now? Should I wait? Will interest rates drop or go up?

Look, the reality is none of us can possibly know for sure. But, much like betting on a horse race or football match allows for some skill as opposed to a completely random game such as a raffle, if we look for clues, we can at least make an educated guess about the next few months or even longer.

The reality is, we consciously and unconsciously make predictions all the time. We do it before we move jobs, take on a new colleague or invest in some marketing. In this business it's vital to spot trends early and adapt to them quickly. Those that do will be the most successful in your area – hopefully it's you.

So when the August school holiday lull passes, what is in store for us from September onward? Should we be trying to smash it before the Christmas slowdown or keeping a lid on costs and hope for a stronger market in 2025?

Let's look at some of the clues;

First of all: Interest rates. They’ve just dropped to 5%, the first fall since 2020 when they went from 0.25% to just 0.1% - it hardly seems possible now and all credit to anyone who took a long fixed rate back then.

Wage growth has slowed which could mean another cut before Christmas. Each cut saves buyers a few pounds a month and helps to convince savers that property could be a better place for their cash than the bank. But more important is the message it sends – buy soon or you’ll miss the boat. Each cut is surely an extra sale a month.

Second key clue: Energy costs. Like inflation in general, the pain is easing with the price cap now around £130 a month versus £350 in January. That’s £220 a month in a buyer’s pocket – that’s about £50,000 of a mortgage paid.

The next clue is the fact rents and house prices are up already, about 7% and 1.5% respectively. In the spirit of ‘glass half full’ this is significant for two reasons – it is growth and it isn’t a drop

Another key factor is the fact the election has happened and any initial fallout has dispersed. Landlords who wanted to flee have probably done so now and whilst there will be many bumps ahead, it is refreshing to have our government focusing on issues rather than self-preservation. Long may it last (Spoiler: it won’t).

The late October Budget which will deliver some pain, hasn’t happened yet, enjoy this interim period. As mentioned, wage growth has just slowed to a 2 year low. This eases inflationary worries and makes a rate cut likely but on the flip-side, potential buyers feeling less well-off won’t help much.

Things are beginning to look much, much more positive than they have been.

But, there is still a lot that could change. Reading the International news pages will bring you back down to earth, there are big problems everywhere and any of them could impact the property world any time. So here’s one prediction which you don't need a crystal ball to be able to offer up. The property market will remain unpredictable.

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