JONATHAN ROLANDE: Why Labour’s private school VAT...

Of all the stories I read over the past week, there was one which really stopped me in my tracks.

It revealed how many parents are now willing to pay 25% extra to live in the right catchment area for a top state primary school.

The research by Santander found parents were, on average, also willing to relocate up to 25 miles to move to their preferred catchment area.

And one in 10 parents were willing to consider relocating more than 40 miles. It comes as research by the bank shows parents looking to send their children to one of the top 500 state primary schools outside of London are hit with a 5% premium on properties within the catchment area. In cash terms, parents must pay £21,215 more than the average price of a home in the same area.

This issue is, of course, not a new one. The proximity to a good school is - and always will be - a hugely important factor most people consider before deciding on when they want to live. But the topic is now even more relevant given Labour’s plans to levy VAT on private schools.

Many commentators have suggested this will immediately lead to a surge in house prices for properties close to strongly-performing schools outside of the private sector. I remain sceptical about this. Yes, it certainly could happen. But I’d be very surprised if we see prices soaring as a result of Labour’s plans for private schools.

Some experts have predicted rises of as much as 20 to 25%, which backs up the Santander research. Prices up 25%? Forget it! There are a number of reasons why. Firstly, not all private schools will add 20% to their fees immediately.

Some have already said they will absorb some or all of the cost, at least for now. Until the schools get their ducks in the row the full impact won’t be seen within the property market. Also, catchment areas for state schools are something of a black art. Some measure them to the millimetre (at least it seems like that sometimes), and you won’t get a place if you live outside it. Others are more flexible. And not all are oversubscribed.

Sometimes, you can still get a place if you live outside the catchment area. Plus house prices are not only down to school catchment areas.

Other factors like transport links and local amenities still make a big difference, too. My hunch is that some areas of the UK who boast good schools will benefit from slightly inflated house prices but nowhere near these high double digit numbers being discussed.

One trend I do think we will see more of are people being open minded to move further away from where they currently are. I also expect we could see a move towards growing numbers of downsizers as people take money out of the house to lower debt and cover the higher school fees so that their children can stay in their schools.

In the prime London markets some people are already shunning the most expensive houses in the areas as they trim their budgets.

Others are also looking at moving out of the city altogether and settling in towns and villages that boast good grammar schools. This could easily be replicated in other cities across the UK. But the more rural and remote areas are often among those suffering with the more acute shortage of available property.

And, in the end, this remains the big issue: availability. We’d have to see a huge spike in prices to encourage owners to make a move and free up property. And I just can’t see that happening given the current shape of the market.

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