Interest cut to further boost confidence north of the border

The three months of May-July provide welcome news for both active buyers and sellers, and those thinking of buying or selling imminently, according to our latest ESPC House Price Report.
 
We’ve seen a very healthy market over this period, with supply and demand working well to satisfy the market’s needs and some reassuringly consistent figures when it comes to average selling prices and median selling times, especially that the current average selling price is so close to that of the same time last year, offering real stability.
 
Clearly, both buyers and sellers are feeling much more confident in the market compared to last summer, and the recent announcement of the Bank of England’s decision to lower the interest rate should only serve to boost this in the months to come.

The average selling price of property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders was £284,624 during May-July 2024, which is almost exactly the same as the average seen in May-July 2023 (£284,167). This clearly demonstrates that the market has been operating well and offering great opportunities for buyers and sellers alike to make informed choices when moving home.

As we would expect, there are regional differences when we look at properties across the specific areas covered by ESPC. Homes in the City of Edinburgh had an average selling price of £302,863 on average, which is 1.3% less than the same time last year. 

Experienced such a boom

However, the decline was more pronounced in East Lothian; here, average selling prices fell 4.7% annually to a new average of £271,663. If we examine the data, the decline is more likely due to a rise in the number of smaller, cheaper properties selling across the region compared to larger, more expensive ones. For example, ESPC figures show that, year-on-year, there were more sales of one-bedroom flats in Musselburgh and two-bedroom flats in Haddington during this time, with a decline in the sales volumes of pricier properties such as three-bedroom houses in the same areas. As we have discussed in previous reports, East Lothian experienced such a boom in the post-Covid years that any decline currently is more likely to bring property prices in line with the surrounding areas, rather than reflect a deterioration in the actual value of homes in the region.

By contrast, the localised nature of the Scottish property market was clearly evidenced in West Fife & Kinross and West Lothian, with both areas recording increases on their average property selling prices compared to May-July 2023: up 9% and 11.6% respectively.

Properties in the sought-after Edinburgh South achieved some of the highest prices, with homes in this part of the city selling for an average of £360,702 – again, very similar to prices recorded in May-July 2023 (just a 0.2% difference year-on-year). Homes in the popular North West of Edinburgh saw some of the most drastic price changes, with a 15% annual increase in selling prices, taking the average cost of a property purchase in this area of the Capital to £340,946.

Dunfermline offered more affordable options than many other areas, with an average selling price of £209,181 – a 3.5% increase on the same time last year. One- and two-bedroom flats in the city were among the most budget-friendly properties available, with average selling prices of £92,755 and £132,524 respectively, making them an ideal choice for first-time buyers or those in the earlier stages of their property journey.

Savvy property bids

The average percentage of Home Report valuation attained across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders during May-July 2024 was 102.4%, which is 1.3 percentage points less than the same time last year. This is a continuation of a trend we’ve seen in the last few months, where rising stock levels on the market mean that buyers are under less pressure to pay substantial premiums to secure properties, and can be savvier with their bids, with a higher likelihood of securing a home for closer to its Home Report valuation. 

The largest changes were recorded in East Fife and Midlothian; here, the average amount of Home Report valuation paid dropped by 2.7 percentage points to 101.3% in East Fife, and 2 percentage points to 101.7% in Midlothian.

75.5% of properties sold for at least their Home Report valuation, down from 80.4% in May-July 2023; however, this was representative of all areas, where properties typically achieved a lower percentage above their Home Report valuation than they did last year. This continues to be very positive news for buyers and onward purchasers, with selling prices now more accurately aligning with the Home Report valuation, making the home purchase more affordable, with less money required for the ‘overbid’ which could potentially be put towards a mortgage deposit, thus increasing affordability.

Flew off the market

The median time for properties to go under offer during May-July 2024 was 21 days, just two days slower than the same time last year. This is positive news for buyers and sellers, indicating stability in the market and allowing consistency for both parties, with buyers able to view properties in a more considered fashion than in recent times, and sellers assured that their homes could sell in a matter of weeks.

As we would expect to see, there were differences in the median selling time across the regions, with some areas and some property types demanding faster action from buyers. Homes in West Fife & Kinross and East Lothian were in demand, with selling times of just 18 and 19 days respectively.

Looking closer at West Fife & Kinross, Dunfermline was especially fast-moving; the city had a median selling time of only 15 days, while two-bedroom houses there were the fastest-selling overall, going under offer in just nine days. If we examine East Lothian in more depth, two-bedroom flats in Haddington were also swift to sell, with a median selling time of ten days.

By contrast, homes in East Fife took a little longer to go under offer, selling in 35 days.

Overall, properties in Edinburgh sold in 22 days (three days slower than May-July 2023), and homes in the city centre and in the north of the city had the longest median selling times, but this was still quick, at 27 days.

23.8% of properties for sale went to a closing date, down 3.6 percentage points from the same time last year. This, coupled with the steady average selling price and relatively consistent median selling time suggests that homeowners are listing their homes at realistic prices, allowing buyers to act appropriately and make informed decisions when making an offer on a property.

Sales volumes rose substantially

Continuing a pattern seen in the last few months, the market enjoyed a burst of healthy activity during May-July, with significant rises in the volume of property sales.

Sales volumes rose 22.2% year-on-year across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders, demonstrating strong levels of activity from keen buyers at all stages of the property ladder. 

Once again, one- and two-bedroom flats in Leith were the properties sold in the highest volumes; during May-July, they had average selling prices of £188,843 and £244,269 respectively. The two-bedroom flats experienced a significant rise in sales volumes compared to May-July 2023, with levels up 70.3% annually, while sales of one-bed flats rose 15.4% by comparison.

Also experiencing substantial leaps in sales were two-bedroom flats and three-bedroom houses in Edinburgh’s Corstorphine, with sales volumes increasing by 45% and 55% respectively compared to the same time last year.

Two-bedroom flats in Dunfermline were also incredibly popular, with a 40.9% year-on-year jump in sales volumes and an average selling price of £132,524, indicating that the city is increasingly a sought-after option for first-time buyers and young professionals, as well as property investors.

In Midlothian, three-bedroom houses in Penicuik proved particularly popular, while one- and two-bedroom flats in Musselburgh were the top sellers for East Lothian.

Buyers offered plenty of choice

The annual rise in sales volumes was coupled with a 9.2% rise in new properties coming on to the market, offering buyers a wealth of choice for their next home. These rising levels indicate strong confidence in the local market and a return to the levels of activity many would expect to see, with a good flow of supply and demand to satisfy the market. This is especially impressive given that June and July are typically quieter periods, with many homeowners taking holidays during this time. 

The top five locations for new property listings during May-July were Dunfermline, Leith, Musselburgh, Corstorphine and Liberton, suggesting opportunities for a real mix of buyers in the market, from first-time buyers and young professionals to families and older buyers.

Sellers clearly felt confident in the market despite a rise in competition over recent months, with 86% of properties coming onto the market listed using the ‘offers over’ marketing method, up from 76.2% of properties in May-July 2023. On average, sellers then accepted offers that were 7.2% higher than the offers over asking price.