A high-end estate agent who was one of the founding directors of Agents' Mutual says a British exit from the EU may not be harmful to the domestic housing market.
Trevor Abrahmsohn of London agency Glentree says in his latest blog that although it would take “a little time” for the dust to settle after a No vote - including the possible installation of a new prime minister - “there is no reason to believe that the prevailing economic policies will change very much.”
Abrahmsohn writes: “I firmly believe that there will be inward investment from multi-national companies and investors (such as Nissan, Honda, IBM, Ford, Google, Microsoft etc.) who will want to benefit from the new Social Contract and relaxed labour laws that will be introduced in the period after the Referendum that will enable the UK economy to ‘spin faster’ once it is free of the ‘shackles’ of European regulations which has served to slow our progress to date.”
He even suggests a new prime minister post-Brexit may even wish to reverse some of the stamp duty changes impacting on the top end of the housing market now.
Dominic Agace, chief executive of franchise network Winkworth - which has many of its branches in London - says in his blog: “The UK and London in particular has always had a draw for foreign investment, not only from Europe but much further afield, and I would expect this to continue whatever the outcome, especially as people come for many reasons including schools and the lifestyle."
However, a Brexit could have a knock-on effect on house prices if it led to a reduction in inward migration from Europe according to Winkworth’s international department head David King.
"There may be implications for UK buyers looking in mainland Europe should we exit the EU. If, following an exit, extra rules were introduced for British buyers such as visa or money checks then the process could be more difficult” he cautions.
And Russell Quirk, founder of online agency eMoov, says a Brexit would lead to uncertainty amongst the UK public, and so reduced transaction volumes.
“We believe [prices] could easily drop by five per cent - maybe more - so the average UK homeowner could see their property reduce by £11,000 in value” he says.
In recent weeks we have reported Cluttons saying the central London high-end market may stagnate between now and the referendum because of uncertainty. And a survey by Carter Jonas, including commercial as well as residential experts, shows 65 per cent of the property industry opposed to a Brexit.
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May this, might that. Everyone has an opinion, but most of us do not feel the need to publish it.
Obviously, certain people seem to think theirs matter.
I'm with Terence. And any headline that includes the words "may" or "may not" just aint worth the paper it's printed on.
I see no mention of the effect that hundreds of thousands of pensioners living in places like Spain, who would lose residency and healthcare services and need to return to the UK would have.
If the UK denies EU citizens these rights, EU countries will inevitably reciprocate. Since this will further depress the Spanish market, they'll be looking at the cheaper end of the UK market, with all that that implies, as it will be all that they can afford.
Including the pensioners, there are something like 2 million Brits living and working on the Continent who would lose residency and employment rights. There would be some offset with EU citizens having to leave the UK, but it is a major issue that needs considering.
Excellent points. The Brits living and working in the EU seem to have been largely ignored in this whole debate. Do they not matter too?
As you say, it's a major issue that needs some more consideration. But I fear that any reasoned or intelligent debate surrounding the EU will be drowned out by fear, hysteria, hyperbole and half-truths.
Could, should, might, may, may not - truth is, no-one really knows for sure. It's a leap in the dark. One thing is for sure, an out vote would cause a lot of uncertainty and issues in the housing market, that's just inevitable. Look at what happens before a general election - that, but ten times worse!
The Brexiters don't seem to have a plan, they just seem certain that the UK will be so much better off outside of Europe, where we can set our own rules and makes our own laws and not be ruled by corporate suits from Brussels (we can be ruled by the Westminster suits instead!) This makes no sense to me, though. This government has implemented, or attempted to implement, plenty since last May. I didn't see the EU getting in the way there. The EU is an easy, simple and lazy scapegoat. Want someone to blame? Blame the EU. See also benefit cheats.
The out campaign might have picked up a few big-hitters in recent days, but are they the sort of big-hitters you can really trust? Duncan-Smith, Gove, Grayling and BoJo, with Farage and Galloway also in tow. There's 6 reasons to remain in already!
I don't really like to mention it, but I will!! This insightful analysis and , I am sure, well researched opinion from the man who thought that stopping agents who advertise with OTM advertising with either Rightmove or Zoopla was a great idea. Hmmmm....
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