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Agents unruffled as sales slide again

Agents insist the market is still moving – albeit among cash buyers – after HMRC data shows another dip in sales activity.

HMRC’s latest property transactions statistics estimates that there were 86,190 UK residential sales during July 2023 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

The figure is 22% lower annually and down 9% on June 2023.

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On a seasonally adjusted estimate, HMRC said the number of UK residential transactions in July 2023 was 86,510, 16% lower than July 2022 and 1% higher than June 2023.

It comes after Zoopla this week warned that sales are set to be at their lowest for more than a decade this year.

Agents remain positive though

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said: “A further step up in completed transactions for July feels like a hot summer streak when you consider that 2023 began with uncertainty and hesitation. 

“Activity may be down year-on-year, but it’s still within touching distance of the numbers seen throughout the mid-2010s, despite the low interest rate environment being firmly in the rear view mirror.

“Mortgage rates are slowly heading back in the right direction and, while rate cuts have been incremental, borrowers will be relieved and have a chance to catch their breath following a turbulent 12 months.”

He added that the market is not wholly determined by mortgage rates and cash buyers and said “right sizers” have both benefited from strong house price growth in recent years and are now able to make their moves relatively unaffected by a lending environment.

Leeming said: “Heading into Autumn we expect housing is likely to be a defining topic of conversation at the political party conferences and expect it to be central to the major parties’ long-term strategies. Reforms to planning, greater devolution to local councils and green energy infrastructure are all important topics of conversation for Sunak and Starmer to address to give homebuyers confidence that a brighter future lies ahead.”

Nigel Bishop of buying agency Recoco Property Search, added: “Although July’s market activity doesn’t quite compare to that of July 2022, we are still seeing buyers who are determined to find a property as soon as possible. The current market is particularly driven by cash buyers who are not faced by higher interest rates but we have seen some house hunters adjusting their budget or search criteria in order to find a suitable property. 

“Sellers who are eager to part from their property are more open to price negotiations than this time last year but buyers need to take into account that the pool of countryside properties is generally smaller, which limits the size of achievable price reductions outside the city.”

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary

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    Chains underpin a significant proportion of housing transactions and so even many cash buyers are indirectly affected by the current return to more normal long-term mortgage rates. Invariably, at least one buyer within a chain will be dependent on mortgage finance and so a healthy housing market cannot be sustained by cash buyers alone. This is why the dramatic fall in the numbers of FTBs announced recently is so important - their reduced number will continue to bear down on transaction volumes and, in turn, this will lead to further downward pressure on prices. Also, cash buyers will be aware of the likely direction of prices and so will not want to overpay today, which will cause them either to postpone purchases or to try to force down prices to seek to minimise / insure against capital losses in a time of falling prices.

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    Sorry on what planet are some agents trying to put a positive spin on this market?

  • Glenn Taylor

    The silence is deafening

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